In the first four years of the Kyoto protocol Italy accumulated a debt of over 700 million euro. Counting the percentage that goes to Italy for afforestation (which, however, should be ensured according to IPCC methods) the debt would be reduced to 300 million euro.
These data, updated in 2011, are better than in previous years and take into account the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions due to the economic crisis and the positive results of energy efficiency and green energy.
In particular, the production of electricity from renewable sources in the 2008-2011 period (see charts below) allowed for a 40% reduction of the greenhouse gas emission cuts planned for Italy compared to 1990 (14 million tons/year). Further emission reductions are also due to the growing contribution of thermal renewables, biofuels and energy efficiency improvements.
It should be remembered that the target assigned to Italy over the 2008-2012 period is an average of 485 Mt CO2 eq, i.e. -6.5% compared to 519 Mt in 1990. In2008, greenhouse gas emissions reached 542 Mt, while a first estimate on 2011 emissions amounted to 486 Mt.
This year, the last of the Kyoto period, the new counter of the Kyoto Club website (in the upper left of the website) will calculate the economic advantage given by the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the increased production from electric renewable sources.
Our estimate indicates that green electricity from January 1, 2008 to February 16, 2012, anniversary of Kyoto, helped reduce Kyoto costs by 590 million euro.
The increase in earnings since the beginning of the year amounts to € 31 million, a figure that should bring the contribution of electric renewables in terms of emission reduction to € 800 million by the end of 2012. Without this contribution the debt to Kyoto in late 2012 would be about 1.5 billion euro.